“Know thy enemy as one knows thyself” Sun zu War 500BC

This time round I am going to focus my attention on the Ashes tournament and namely an article by Alec Stewart [1].

He is reporting on the “Dominate[ing]” English in the series we are 2-0 up in a 5 test match game and are looking strong going into the next test match at Old Trafford.

The language he is using and the feeling he is projecting already sound like it will be a forgone conclusion. Citing stats like

"347 victory" and a "sign of a great team"

This is very patriotic and harks back to when England was the Empire in the world.  This article is full of British pride when once again the Union Jack is and can be flown with all the glory of Royal Britannia. 

May long pray it continue (please all rise for the national anthem), however I do have a nagging doubt that this is not the end.  The Australians are if anything fighters and will not lie down easily. Yes they are considered to be the “weaker side”[2] in this competition; however they came close in the first Test (lost by 14 runs[3]) and have had moments of brilliance.

 Ashton Agar's "astonishing 98" runs on last stand in[4]

This to me is not a side that you can write off, which is why you need to “know thy enemy as one knows thyself” So you don’t underestimate ones opponent and get caught out.

An example of this is to do with Rebecca Adlington coming third in the 800m Olympic final, this is a disappointing tale and where the hype for her winning was huge, but let us spare a thought to the Winner a young 15 year old from America. 

Katie Ledecky

Katie Ledecky was regarded as a sensation and a surprised winner of this event with the favourite (Rebecca) coming in 3^rd[5]. Was she such a surprised winner? Well evidence suggest otherwise as each of her previous Major tournaments her "times kept dropping" [6]. This shows that the probability of her going very fast in the final was there and predicted [7].

Now did she do something special? Certainly it was an Olympic gold. Hindsight is a wonderful thing and looking at her previous times the evidence was there that she could have been a threat.

Now back to the Cricket, if England can win the next test match, that would be brilliant. Yet if Australia wins I wouldn’t be surprised if Alec Stewart doesn’t report “Shock Victory for Australia”. Would I be surprised if Australia mounts a comeback? No, as you can never underestimate your opponent.

Update: The result of the 3rd test was a draw and not by England battling to the end in a heroic struggle against the southern hemisphere might. No the weather intervened[8] and stopped play just as Australia was on the road to wining. Oh well sometimes divine intervention has to play its part. Royal Britannia everyone.